NEW DELHI: India has recorded a sharp rise in seasonal influenza A (H1N1) cases this year even as deaths have dropped to a four-year low, according to data from the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). As of September 30, 2025, the country reported 3,320 cases and just 14 deaths — a striking contrast to previous years where fewer infections caused significantly higher mortality.In comparison, 2024 saw 2,041 cases and 347 deaths, 2023 recorded 8,125 cases and 129 deaths, and 2022 logged 1,320 cases and 410 deaths, NCDC’s influenza surveillance shows.Kerala reported the highest deaths in 2025 (8), followed by Maharashtra (3) and one each in Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.Amid rising case numbers, the Union Health Minister J.P. Nadda on Tuesday reviewed national preparedness for the winter influenza season. Officials from NCDC, IDSP and the Health Ministry informed him that surveillance systems show no unusual rise in influenza activity so far and that circulating strains remain the usual seasonal variants — H3N2, Influenza B (Victoria) and a small proportion of H1N1.Nadda directed all states and district hospitals to complete readiness checks within two weeks, asked central hospitals to ensure full preparedness, and instructed that advisories and regular mock drills be conducted as the January–March influenza peak approaches.Experts say the unusual trend of more cases but sharply fewer deaths reflects stronger population immunity, faster diagnosis and improved clinical management since COVID-19.“When the respiratory lining is inflamed due to poor air quality, viruses attach and multiply more easily. Falling temperatures and mucosal irritation are amplifying infection rates,” said Dr Ekta Gupta, Professor of Virology at ILBS, explaining that the post-monsoon rise is expected, but airway irritation increases vulnerability.She attributed the fall in deaths to better diagnostics and treatment readiness. “PCR testing is now widely available, clinicians are more confident in managing respiratory infections, and vaccination uptake among high-risk groups has improved — all of which prevent severe outcomes.”Dr Gupta said the influenza strain in circulation has not changed, and that repeated exposure over years has built population-level immunity, reducing severity.Dr Suranjit Chatterjee, senior consultant, internal medicine, Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals, said the mismatch between high case numbers and low mortality also reflects better awareness. “People are seeking help earlier, more labs are testing for influenza, and improved treatment facilities and vaccinations in vulnerable groups are preventing deaths,” he said.As winter approaches, public-health experts warn that timely diagnosis and vaccination remain critical, especially for the elderly, pregnant women and those with chronic illnesses.
